Purdue @ Illinois Prediction
It's rivalry week as Purdue square off against the Illini to hopefully tie the all-time series at 44-44-6. Both teams are looking for a win here. Purdue is looking to go 3-3 after an 0-3 start and to keep a spark of a second straight bowl appearance under Brohm. And the Illini are looking to return to a bowl game for the first time since 2014. This will be exciting so lets dive right in.
Illinois
2018 Record: 3-2 (Won against Rutgers)
The Illini's offense is nothing but the run game as they have almost 100 more attempts on the ground than through the air. The run game is not to shabby as they are averaging 262 yds/gm on the ground and 150 yds/gm through the air. Now the QB position is questionable as both Bush and Rivers have split time with the ball. We will start with AJ Bush. He has averaged 104 yds/gm with 1 TD in the 3 games that he has played, he also has a passing rate of 58%. He also is averaging 86 yds/gm on the ground with 2 rushing TD's. M.J Rivers II is averaging 140 yds/gm with 3 TD's and 1 Interception in the 3 games that he has played as well as a 63% passing rate. He's not a scrambler as River's as he's averaging 16 yds/gm on the ground.
Now there are some flaws here as neither team can throw the ball very well or can much of anything through the air. But they should have some breathing room as Purdue has given up 285 yds/gm. But Purdue has an excellent run defense, as they are only allowing 162 yds/gm. I would expect Purdue to tighten their run defense to suffocate the run and to tempt Rivers or Bush to make some shots down field and to hopefully look for mistakes to be made. Now, we've seen Purdue's defense not showing up to play in the second half so this could be interesting to see if the boilermaker's can play a full game.
Purdue
2018 Record: 2-3 (Won against Nebraska)
Purdue's offense unlike the Illini's is a more balanced one with a slight emphasis on the pass, and it has worked as we average 320 yds/gm through the air and a modest 170 yds/gm on the ground. Blough has been stellar all year as he is averaging 263 yds/gm with 7 TD's and 1 interception. And with a passing rate of 68% Last year we saw Blough's 2017 end with a injury against the Illini but I don't expect that to happen here. I will hope to see big games for Knox and Moore who have been explosive all season.
On the passing side, I wouldn't worry as the Illini allow 289 yds/gm. And I can see the run game getting a couple extra here as the Illini defense allows 194 yds/gm on the ground. I really don't see any flaws here that the Illini can exploit as their defense kind of sucks.
Verdict
I don't see this game being a blowout, I will say that this will be another tough road game as the Illini have their homecoming game this week against us. This will be a tough game but I hope that with the buy week Purdue got some much needed rest and hopefully if the defense shows up for all 4 quarters then we could crash two homecoming games in two consecutive weeks for the boilermaker's and tie the series at 44. So with that I'm going with Purdue on this one.
Boiler UP
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